2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile Betting Trends

Breeders' Cup Mile Betting Trends

Order of Australia pulled off the upset in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Keeneland. (Photo credit: Carolyn Simancik/Breeders’ Cup/Eclipse Sportswire/CSM).

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) in 2020 produced the biggest upset in the history of the race as Order of Australia won by a neck and paid $148.40.

The previous biggest upset was Court Vision, who returned $131.60 for trainer Dale Romans at Churchill Downs in 2011.

It was the first Breeders’ Cup Mile victory for trainer Aiden O’Brien, snapping a 0 for 24 run in the race.

The 2017 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Mile held at Del Mar was won by the home team. The Mark Casse trained World Approval returned $7.40 as the betting favorite. Euro invader Lancaster Bomber (13-1) completed a $2 exacta that paid $97.00.

It was a blanket finish among all the minor shares, with U.S. based Blackjackcat landing third and Euro invaders Suedois and Ribchester fourth and fifth.

World Approval went into the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Mile off back to back wins in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) at Saratoga and then the Woodbine Mile (G1).

Sign up at 123BET and receive a $123 new player cash bonus!

Betting Trends for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile

Mile by the Digits: (last 11 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $38.56
Avg. Exacta payoff: $491.72
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.5
Betting Favorites All time: 12 for 37
2020 Winner: Order of Australia ($148.40)
$2Exacta: 2,117.80  $1 Trifecta: $8,786.00
Winner final prep: 9th International Stakes (G3)
Runner up: Circus Maximus
Runner up final prep: 10th Queen Elizabeth II (G1)

While the Euros have dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf in recent years, the home team has done well in the Mile, winning seven of the last 10 and 22 of 37 overall.

The betting favorite has won the Mile a dozen times in the 37 editions.

There have been 11 three-year-olds win the Mile. Among those, nine were Euro invaders including the last five.

10 fillies and mares have beaten the boys in the Mile. Three of those were by Goldikova, who pulled off the hat trick from 2008 through 2010. Eight of the 10 were Euros, the lone exceptions the Mark Casse trained Tepin who won in 2015 at Keeneland and Uni in 2019 for trainer Chad Brown.

Trainer Aiden O’Brien, who has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf six times was a remarkable 0 for 24 in the Mile going into last year. He finally picked up a win with longshot Order of Australia, who returned $148.40, one of the biggest upsets in Breeders’ Cup history. He saddled three runners and they completed the trifecta. Circus Maximus (11-1) completed a $2 exacta that paid $2,117.80 and Lope Y Fernandez (18-1) ran third, the $1 trifecta paying $8,786.00.

Order of Australia Upsets 2020 Mile

We have only seen two wire winners of the race, Lure at Gulfstream Park in 1992 and again in 1993 at Santa Anita.

In addition to Goldikova winning the Mile three times, we have had four others win it twice—Miesque (1987-88), Lure (1992-93), Da Hoss (1996 and 1998) and Wise Dan (2012-13). Order of Australia looks to make it six repeat winners this year.

The key U.S. preps are the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland and the Woodbine Mile (G1), each have produced seven winners. The top Euro race is the Jacques Le Marois (G1) at Deauville which has also produced seven winners. Last year’s winner Order of Australia exited a ninth-place finish in the Novi IT Services International Stakes (G3) at the Curragh.

The 2018 winner Expert Eye ($13.80) exited the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp (G1), the sixth Mile winner to use that race as a prep. He was he first to win the Mile without a previous Grade or Group 1 win since Court Vision in 2011.

Expert Eye was the first and only Mile winner to not have a previous win at the distance in the history of the race. His previous wins came at six and seven furlongs.

We have seen three exactas in the Mile pay over $1,000. Court Vision (64-1) and Turallure (11-1) combo paid $1979.80 in 2011. Singletary topped a $2 exacta in 2004 at Lone Star that paid $1,495.60 and last year’s all time topper paid $2,117.80. There have been 14 exactas of $225 or higher.

Post positions 11 and 12 have each produced three winners, while the 13 and 14 posts are a combined 2 for 44. Order of Australia broke from the 14-post last year.

Trainer records: Aiden O’Brien 1 for 27, Mark Casse 2 for 6, Chad Brown 1 for 7, Bill Mott 1 for 22.

Breeders’ Cup Betting Trends
JuvenileJuvenile FilliesSprintFilly & Mare Sprint

NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022

DRF Past Performances

Check out the most powerful
interactive Past Performances
used by Michael Dempsey. Use the code TENOFF19 which gives
you a 10% discount on any DRF Formulator plan that is one month or longer.


Free Horse Racing Picks

Get free horse racing picks each day from expert race handicapper Michael Dempsey Click Here

Belmont Stakes News & Reports
Breeders' Cup
Turf ‘n’ Sport handicapper Michael Dempsey has the Belmont Stakes covered with his selections, analysis and fair odds for every race on the card!
Wager on the Belmont Stakes
Belmont Stakes News

Belmont Stakes Reports

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Horse Racing Betting Tips
Turf 'n' Sport handicappers give out basic horse racing handicapping information..