2021 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Trends

Breeders' Cup Distaff

Betting trends for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Distaff which will be contested at Del mar on Nov. 6. (Photo credit: Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders’ Cup/CSM).

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) has not seen a lot of surprises over the last decade including Monomoy Girl winning last year as the favorite returning $4.00.

The Fausto Gutierrez trained Letruska figures to be the short priced favorite and is listed at even money in early Breeders’ Cup Distaff betting odds.

Monomoy Girl won her second Distaff last year at Keeneland. She won the 2018 edition at Churchill Downs where she paid $5.60. She came into last year’s race riding a four race winning streak, her final prep a victory in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs.

Forever Unbridled won the 2017 running which was the first held at Del Mar. The Dallas Stewart trainer paid $9.60. She prepped in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga where she won.

The runner up in the 2017  Breeders’ Cup Distaff was Abel Tasman, who completed a $2 exacta that paid $46.80. She was a three-year-old and Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner who had run second in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx Racing in her final prep for the Distaff.

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Betting Trends for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Distaff by the Digits: (last 11 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $9.56
Avg. Exacta payoff: $48.82
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 102.5
Betting Favorites All time: 16 for 37
2020 Winner: Monomoy Girl ($4.00)
$2 Exacta: $42.30  $1 Trifecta: $262.70
Winner final prep: La Troienne (G1)
Runner up: Valiance
Runner up final prep: Won Spinster (G1)

Bayakoa (1989-90) and Royal Delta (2011-12) are the only back to back winners of the Distaff. Beholder won the race in 2013 and 2016, the latter just the third six-year-old to win the race, Blue Prize making it four at that age last year. Monomoy Girl won in 2018 and last year.

13 of the last 14 winners of the race have come into the race owning at least one Grade 1 victory.

The Spinster at Keeneland is a key race, producing 11 winners of the Distaff including in 2019 with Blue Prize. The Beldame has produced nine winners with the Ruffian and Zenyatta seven each. Last year’s winner Monomoy Girl prepped by running second in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx Racing. Forever Unbridled, the 2017 Distaff winner at Del Mar prepped by winning the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga.

Letruska Wins Spinster

Over the past 17 years there has only been one wire winner, Royal Delta ($5.40) in 2012.

Three-year-old fillies have won the Distaff 11 times, four-year-olds have won 17 times. There have been five five-year-olds mares that have won the race including last year. We have seen four six-year-old mares win including Blue Prize in 2019.

In three of the past six years winners came back off a 64-day break (Monomoy Girl last year), a 69-day break (Forever Unbridled in 2017), and a 62-day break (Stopchargingmaria in 2015). Escena won off the longest break at 71 days in 1998.

The top exacta payoff was in 2005 with Pleasant Home (30-1) topping Society Selection (11-1) for a $692.00 payday. Only one of the last 10 exactas paid $100+, Stopchargingmaria topping a $2 exacta that paid $155.80 in 2015 at Keeneland.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Distaff five times including three in a row from 2010 to 2012.

The one and seven posts have been best in the Distaff with seven winners each. The three post is 0 for 35 while the 12-14 posts are a combined 1 for 14. Outside spots have fared well in the past three years, Monmomoy Girl breaking from the 10 post last year and Blue Prize in 2019 and Monomoy Girl in 2018 both broke from the 11 posts. At Del Mar in 2017 Forever Unbridled broke from the five post.

Since 2002 the betting favorite has won the Distaff eight times in 19 editions. However, we have seen several big longshots during that timeframe including Adoration ($83.40) in 2003 and Pleasant Home ($63.50) in 2005.

Trainers race records for this race: Brad Cox 2 for 2, Todd Pletcher 2 for 20, Steve Asmussen 1 for 5, Chad Brown 0 for 5, Bill Mott 5 for 15, Bob Baffert 0 for 7.

Breeders’ Cup Betting Trends
JuvenileJuvenile FilliesSprintFilly & Mare Sprint


NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022

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