2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Betting Trends

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Betting Trends

Caledonia Road pulled off the upset in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Del Mar. (Photo by Jamey Price/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup).

The $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) has produced more than its fair share of winning favorites, but also plenty of longshots as well.

The last three years have been somewhat formful with the $2 exactas paying $48.00, $26.000 and $50.40. Three of the four previous to that paid stacks including Take Charge Brandi topping a $2 exacta that paid $1,557.40 in 2014.

For the third year in a row we are going to have single digit starters. Just seven went last year and nine went to the starting gate in 2019. This year there are nine pre entered with Cairo Memories having the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) as first preference.

Echo Zulu is the favorite in early Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies wagering at BUSR. The Steve Asmussen trainee is perfect in her three starts, her combined winning margin at 16 ¾ lengths.

The filly exits a gate to wire score in the Frizette (G1) at Belmont Park going a one turn mile. The Frizette has been the most productive prep race for the Juvenile Fillies.

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Betting Trends for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Juv. Fillies by the Digits: (last 11 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $33.60
Avg. Exacta payoff: $333.56
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 87.5
Betting Favorites All time: 18 for 37
2020 Winner: Vequist ($15.20)
$2 Exacta: $48.00  $1 Trifecta: $116.20
Winner final prep: 2nd Frizette (G1)
Runner up: Dayoutoftheoffice
Runner up final prep: Won Frizette (G1)

The betting favorites have done quite well in this race, winning 18 of the 37 runnings, but we have seen plenty of longshots and the $33.00 average payoff dating back 11 years is only topped by the Breeders’ Cup Mile at $38.56.

Ria Antonia paid $66.60 in 2013 after a disqualification of She’s a Tiger (5-1) for interference in the stretch. Take Charge Brandi then paid $125.40 in 2014 followed by Champagne Road paying $69.20 in 2016 and in 2017 at Del Mar Caledonia Road pulled off the upset to the tune of $36.60.

Seven favorites won in a row from 2002 to 2008. Since 2011 the betting favorite is just 2 for 10.

We have seen some huge exactas in this race in the past decade. In 2013 the $2 exacta paid $739.20, $1,557.20 in 2014, $773.60 in 2016 and $392.20 in 2017 at Del Mar.

A total of 30 of the 37 winners of the Juvenile Fillies had a prior stakes victory. However, of the seven that did not, four have been since 2012.

Echo Zulu Wins 2021 Frizette

Five of the last six winners landed in the exacta in a stake in their last prep. Since Beholder won in 2011 with a prep in a six furlong allowance race, every winner exits a route race.

Speed has been good in this race with 8 of the last 16 winners taking the field gate to wire. It would have been one more but She’s a Tiger was DQ’d in 2013.

In 2017 Caledonia Road became just the second winner to have raced just twice, Indian Blessing the first in 2007. British Idiom was the third, winning the race in her third start in 2019. Jaywalk in 2018 was making her fifth start while last year Vequist was making her fourth career start.

The Frizette (G1) has produced the most winners with 14, the Alcibiades (G1) next with eight winners. Last years’ winner Vequist ran second in the Frizette in her final prep. British Idiom won the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland in her final prep in 2019.

Ideally the final prep comes between 21 and 35 days which covers the major preps. 34 of the 37 winners fit this category. The longest time between the final prep and a win in the Juvenile was Tempera’s 62-day break in 2001.

Posts 11-14 are a combined 4 for 62 and we have seen the 14 post account for two of those four winners. Last year’s field size was just seven and nine fillies went to the gate in 2019.

Trainer’s records: Brad Cox 1 for 1, Steve Asmussen 1 for 5, Bob Baffert 2 for 25.

Breeders’ Cup Betting Trends
JuvenileJuvenile FilliesSprintFilly & Mare Sprint

NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022

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