The weather during the first half of the Saratoga meeting was good for the most part, but things could be ugly on Wednesday, which likely will shift the $100,000 Troy from the turf to the main track.
A field of eight was entered including main-track-only entrant Dads Cap, who is the 4-5 morning line favorite. The winner of the Carter Handicap (G1) at Aqueduct in May, the Rudy Rodriguez trainee has fired a couple of duds in graded stakes company since that score, but now drops into an easier spot, but is not going to offer much bang for the buck.
Tightend Touchdown will be sent out by Jason Servis and is 7-5 on the morning line. The gelding has landed in the exacta in nine of his dozen career starts on turf, but does have a win over a wet track. He comes into the Troy sharp, missing winning the Parx Dash (G3) last out by a nose in a three-way photo.
The weather forecast calls for rain Tuesday night and heavy thunderstorms are in the forecast for Wednesday with one to two inches of rain possible.
There are three other races carded for the turf as well as the opener, which is a steeplechase race which could be in danger of being canceled.
Of course, the weather forecast is rarely on target, although I am handicapping Wednesday’s card for off the turf.
Let’s head out to the Spa for Wednesday’s featured race of the day:
Saratoga Race 9 The Troy (Post time 4:49 ET)
2 Tightend Touchdown 7-5
5 Dads Cap 4-5
6 Spring to the Sky 5-2
3 Golden Rifle 5-1
Analysis: Tightend Touchdown is coming off a tough loss in the Parx Dash Handicap (G3) last out, beaten a nose by the very tough Ben’s Cat. Two back off nearly a four month break the gelding won the Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup in a sharp effort going five furlongs over turf labeled as good.
He has not been on dirt since beating starter optional claimers at Aqueduct in March of ’13. His last trip over a sloppy track came in December of ’12 and he beat restricted $30,000 claimers. The gelding is a hard knocker than seldom runs bad one, landing in the exacta in 17 of his 25 career starts. His trainer Jason Servis indicated he will go if this comes off the turf as expected.
Dads Cap won the Carter ‘Cap (G1) back in April at Aqueduct in an upset and earned a career top speed fig in the effort. He was given two months off and has come back to run a pair of subpar efforts, a fifth in the True North (G2) and last out a fourth in the Belmont Sprint (G3).
The colt has never raced on an off track but is bred for it, by Discreet Cat out of a Grindstone mare. He drops into a softer spot here and posted a bullet work on July 25, but hoping our top pick is going to end up offering more value for the top spot.
Spring to the Sky went gate to wire to win the Lucky Coin last out over the turf here on July 20. He comes in here sharp for the Chad Brown barn that has really heated up. He has a win and a second in three trips over a wet track, but the win was in his debut way back in ’11. May end up scratching but fits here with his best if Brown elects to run him.
WIN: #2 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,5,6
TRI: 2 / 3,5,6 / 3,5,6
Michael Dempsey’s Saratoga Special $79.95
Michael’s Saratoga Report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike has been handicapping the New York Racing circuit on a daily basis for nearly three decades. Get the remainder of the meeting for just $79.95!