While Sunday’s $200,000 Miss Grillo (G3) at Belmont Park is not an official “Win and You’re In” race, this race is certainly a springboard to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) next month at Del Mar.
Trainer Chad Brown has won the Pilgrim five times in the last nine years and three of the winners have turned around and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies—Maram in 2008, Lady Eli in 2014 and New Money Honey last year.
All three of those Juvenile Fillies winners picked up the hardware at Santa Anita.
Brown will be well represented in this year’s edition of the Pilgrim with a pair of runners in Significant Form (7-2) and Africa (4-1).
Significant Form broke her maiden in her debut but was disqualified for interference while Africa makes her U.S. debut after three starts in France.
The Todd Pletcher trained Orbolution is the 2-1 morning line favorite. The son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Orb won the P.G., Johnson in his last outing at Saratoga.
Let’s head out to Belmont Park for Sunday’s featured race of the day:
Belmont Park Race 8 The Miss Grillo G3 (Post time 5:13 ET)
#3 Southampton Way 8-1
#7 Significant Form 7-2
#6 Orbolution 2-1
#9 Africa 4-1
Analysis: Southampton Way makes her turf debut here for former Pletcher assistant DePaz. The filly ran second in the Adirondack (G2) on dirt in her first go against winners and then ran second on the fake stuff in the Arlington Washington Lassie in her most recent outing. She should take to turf, out of a Not for Love mare that has dropped five other winners and four have won on turf. The trainer is 24% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. We should catch a decent price on this gal.
Significant Form is still a maiden after getting DQ’d from her win in her debut for interference. She came in on the first turn shutting off a rival with that foe clipping heels. She came with a four-wide run and drew off late to a good looking win. Brown has won this race in four of the last five years and three of those winners went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). This gal was a $575,000 purchase, a huge number for a runner by Creative Cause, who stands for just $15,000. The Harlan’s Holiday mare has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Hay Dakota ($236,070).
Orbolution was bumped coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace while saving ground and drew clear to win the P.G. Johnson last out in her stakes debut, earning the top last out speed fig in a good looking effort. The Pletcher trainee just looks better with each outing. She is by Orb out of a stakes placed Horse Chestnut mare that has dropped two other winners including one other turf winner. This gal was a $370,000 Keeneland purchase. She makes her third start of her current form cycle with the main knock the likely short price.
WIN: #3 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,6,7,9
TRI: 3,7 / 3,6,7,9 / 3,6,7,8,9
Get Michael’s Best Plays Report each Saturday which will include all of the U.S. based Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races from now to October and Michael Dempsey’s 2-Day Breeders’ Cup Report.
Michael’s two-day Breeders’ Cup Report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the two-day championship event from Del Mar on Nov. 3-4.