March Madness: Sweet 16 Betting Trends

You are at the stage of the bracket where some teams never lose and some teams never win.

Wouldn’t it be nice to know the March Madness betting tendencies of those teams over the past decade? No problem.

Sweet 16 Trends

Underdogs have been excellent in the past two tournaments, rolling to an 11-5 ATS record in Sweet 16 action. Oregon and Florida Gulf Coast are both double-digit underdogs after crashing the bracket as No. 12 and No. 15 seeds respectively.

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Three of the four No. 1 seeds remain, but they did not cover many spreads recently at this stage, going just 2-5 ATS in seven games over the past two Madnesses.

Still, higher seeds tend to win at this stage of the competition. Higher-seeded teams were 6-2 SU a year ago but just 3-5 SU in 2011 for a two-year total of 9-7 SU.

There are two cases where 1 seeds face 4 seeds and there has been a reliable UNDER trend when that happens historically. The Under is 9-3 in the past 12 games where a No. 1 seed plays a No. 4 seed. Indiana vs Syracuse in the East and Kansas vs Michigan in the South fit the bill.

Last year, three teams seeded 10 or higher played in the Sweet 16 and all three covered the spread (NC State, Ohio, and Xavier). If that pattern holds up, Oregon as the 12 seed would cover against No. 1 Louisville in the Midwest region, Florida Gulf Coast will cover against No. 3 Florida as the first-ever 15 seed in the Round of 16, and No. 13 La Salle will upset No. 9 Wichita State in the West Region.

The East region sees the top four seeds still intact.


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