Kentucky Derby Future Betting: Honor Code Gets Late Action

Juvenile winner New Year's Day closed at 15-1 in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Photo credit Breeders' Cup Ltd.)

The Shug McGaughey trained Honor Code lived up to the hype on Saturday, winning the $400,000 Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct and is the current favorite in Kentucky Derby future betting.

Pool 1 of Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed before the running of Saturday’s Remsen and the $150,000 Kentucky Jockey Cub (G2), with Honor Code the lowest price among the 23 separate betting interests. The colt will pay $22.80 if he wins the Run for the roses next spring.

After his victory his price in the offshore racebooks dropped, currently listed at 6-1 at Sportsbook.ag as of Tuesday morning.

A total of $238,078 was wagered into the win pool and $35,096 in the exacta pool in the Churchill Downs pool, the earliest the track has ever offered future wagering on the Kentucky Derby.

“All others” closed at 4-5 and will return $3.60.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day closed at 15-1 and his payoff for those who backed him in Pool 1 will get $32.40 back for each $2 wagered. The colt is currently at +1800 at Sportsbook.ag.

With just 24 betting interests, it can be tough to find a price on a horse, and Churchill Downs needs to expand wagering to include more options. Currently at most of the offshore racebooks there are over 300 runners listed.

Comparing Pool 1 to offshore prices, there are 12 separate betting interests where the price is higher off shore

In Trouble, who won the Futurity (G2) at Belmont Park on Sept., 28 closed at $109.80 in Pool 1 of the KDFW, but can be had at Sportsbook.ag at better than double the price. A $2 payoff today pays $252.00.

The main advantage of shopping offshore is with longshots, horses that have not started in stakes races. There are over a hundred runners listed where the odds are between 150-1 and 500-1.

Remember, last year on this date Orb was just a maiden winner with a 1 for 4 record. Two years ago, I’ll Have Another was 1 for 3 with just a maiden win under his belt.

On this date three years ago, Animal Kingdom had started just twice, with a maiden win in his second career start.

It is very possible the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner is still relatively unknown, meaning look for a big price if you are shopping in the Derby Future pools.

 

Horse

KDFW  Pool 1 Payoffs

Sportsbook.ag (as of 12/3)

Almost Famous

62.80

52.00

Bobby’s Kitten

58.80

72.00

Bond Holder

82.80

152.00

Cairo Prince

55.60

38.00

Cleburne

126.00

132.00

Commissioner

69.80

142.00

Coup de Grace

99.20

102.00

Financial Mogul

453.40

202.00

Havana

54.20

52.00

Honor Code 

22.80

14.00

In Trouble

109.80

252.00

Kobe’s Back

171.20

122.00

Mexikoma

82.80

112.00

Misconnect

88.80

252.00

New Year’s Day

32.40

38.00

Noble Moon

129.40

162.00

Pablo Del Monte

121.60

132.00

Ride On Curlin

117.40

122.00

Rise Up

102.80

102.00

Shared Belief

66.20

42.00

Strong Mandate

57.60

52.00

Tamarando

86.20

102.00

Tap It Rich

52.20

42.00

ALL OTHER 3YOS

3.60

N/A

 

 

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