Saturday’s feature at Keeneland is the $250,000 Lexus Raven Run (G2), a seven-furlong test on the main track for three-year-old fillies that drew a wide-open field of 11.
The John Kimmel trained Bar of Gold is the 5-2 morning line favorite and is coming off a pair of runner up finishes in graded stakes company at Saratoga, running into Cavorting in those two starts, the Test (G1) and the Prioress (G2).
Jose Lezcano retains the mount and will carry 118 pounds and break from the two post as she goes from six furlongs to seven. She runs into two exiting the Prioress, fourth place finisher Paid Up Subscriber (6-1) and sixth place finisher Irish Jasper (5-1).
A trio of fillies exit the Dogwood (G3) at Churchill Downs, which was run on Sept. 19 at the seven-furlong distance, runner up Chide (5-1), fourth place finisher Kathballu (10-1) and eight place finisher I’m a Looker (15-1).
I landed on Miss Ella, who I doubt is going to go off at her 8-1 morning line, which seems generous. She has won three of her six career starts, taking the Christiecat Stakes at Belmont Park in a race taken off the turf in her last outing.
Let’s head out to Keeneland for Saturday’s featured race of the day:
KEE Race 9 The Raven Run G2 (Post time5:30 ET)
#5 Miss Ella 8-1
#2 Bar of Gold 5-2
#1 Paid Up Subscriber 6-1
#7 Forever Unbridled 8-1
Analysis: Miss Ella was a game winner of the off the turf Christiecat last out at Belmont Park. The runner up Darling Sky came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in her next outing on Sept. 29 at Philly. Two back our top pick ran a good second in the Coronation Cup behind repeat winner Lady Shipman, who came back to win the Smart N Fancy in her next start on Aug. 30 at Saratoga. Her lone start at seven furlongs came here back at the spring meeting and she won the Beaumont (G2) in just her second career start. The 8-1 morning line seems generous.
Bar of Gold made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Prioress (G2) at the Spa behind the talented filly Cavorting. She ran second to Cavorting two back as well in the Test (G1) at Seven furlongs. She looks as if she may appreciate the stretch back out to seven furlongs and put in a bullet drill on Oct. 6.
Paid Up Subscriber also exits the Prioress where she made a mild late run to finish fourth in her stakes debut at 15-1. She was a game winner versus Alw-1 foes two back off a 2 1/2 month break. She makes her third start off the break here for the Al Stall barn and she broke her maiden at this distance.
WIN: #5 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 2,5 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,5,7,10
Michael’s Breeders’ Cup Report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the card from Keeneland on Oc. 30-31.
The Breeders’ Cup offers 12 championship races over two days, bringing together the best top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the world, this year to compete at Keeneland.
In 2013 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday Mike nailed seven recommended exactas, paying $53.20, $19.00, $23.20, $58.00, $66.60, $107.80, and $33.60!