Keeneland Betting: Left a Message Value in Dowager

A field of 10 goes in Sunday's Dowager at Keeneland (photo credit Keeneland.com)

A field of 10 fillies and mares will line up to go 1 ½ miles in the $125,000 Rood and Riddle Dowager, the final stake on the turf at the Keeneland meeting, which concudes next Saturday.

The 7-2 morning line favorite is the Roger Attfield trained Kissable, who is coming into the race off a fifth place finish in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) at Belmont Park on Sept. 28.

Only four in the field have won at the demanding 1 ½-mile distance. Kissable won the 2012 Waya at Saratoga last August over yielding turf.

The other three ladies with victories at the distance are Preferential (4-1), Beiljoca (9-2) and Left a Message (6-1).

Among the quartet, I landed on Left a Message, who appears to be the value of the race if she goes off near her 6-1 morning line.

The feature at Belmont Park on Sunday afternoon is the $100,000 Dream Rush for three-year-old fillies that are non-winners of a stake.

The stakes action at the Belmont Park Fall Championship meeting is also ending. Coming up next Saturday, we have the final two graded stakes of the meet, the $200,000 Turnback the Alarm (G3) and the $200,000 Bold Ruler (G3).

The final day of the Belmont Park meeting is Sunday, Oct. 27, and racing shifts to Aqueduct starting on Friday, Nov. 1, although we might be pre-occupied with a few races on the west coast that afternoon.

Let’s head out to Keeneland for Sunday’s featured play of the day:

 

Keeneland Race 8 The Dowager (Post time 4:49 ET)

10 Left a Message   6-1

8 Kissable   7-2

2 Preferential   4-1

9 Beijoca   9-2

Analysis: Left a Message made a mild late run to finish fourth last out in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon behind a couple of runners she runs into again today. The Tom Proctor trainee has a win at the 1 1/2 mile distance, taking the Flaming Page two back at Woodbine. The runner up in that race was Sky High Page, who returned to beat allowance foes in her next start at Kentucky Downs and then won the River Memories Stakes at Woodbine on Saturday. This gal is worth a look to turn the tables here if we catch most of the 6-1 morning line.

Kissable stalked the early pace form the inside and finished evenly for fifth last out in the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park, beaten four lengths for the top spot. She drops into an easier spot her while she has only won one of eight starts since arriving in the U.S. and lands with the Roger Attfield barn, she has been facing mostly tougher. Her one win state side came in the Waya last summer over yielding turf at today’s 1 1/2 mile distance. She looks like a good fit here dropping out of Grade 1 company.

Preferential tracked the early lead, headed for home with a clear lead and could not hold off the winner in deep stretch in the Ladies Marathon, beaten a neck for the top spot. She is 0 for 4 since coming to the U.S. but comes in here off a career top speed fig and she is making her third start of her current form cycle. She has enough pedigree to handle the distance and won a stake at Chantilly in France last September at the distance.

Wagering

WIN: #10 to win at 9-2 or better.

EX: 8,10 / 2,8,9,10

TRI: 8,10 / 2,8,9,10 / 2,6,8,9,10

 

Michael Dempsey’s Breeders’ Cup Report $34.95 (Fri-Sat)

Michael’s Breeders’ Cup Report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the Friday and Saturday card from Santa Anita Park on Nov. 1-2.

The Breeders’ Cup offers 14 championship races over two days, bringing together the best top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the world, this year to compete at Santa Anita Park.

 

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