Keeneland Betting: Ami’s Holiday Live Longshot in Lexington

A field of 11 go to the gate in Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland (Photo credit: Keeneland .com)

We have reached the end of the road on the Kentucky Derby trail, with Saturday’s $200,000 Coolmore Lexington (G3) the final points race, and Ami’s Holiday has the look of a live longshot.

While the race offers 10-4-2-1 Derby points, the race will have no impact on the Kentucky Derby field. However, the race drew a wide open field of 11 with the likely two betting favorites both making their polytrack debuts.

The Shug McGaughey trained Mr Speaker is the 5-2 morning line favorite and is coming off a good effort in a runner up finish in the Palm Beach (G3) on grass. The colt had a good morning drill over the polytrack.

Divine Oath is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line and is one of three sent out by trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the race a record five times including last year with Winning Cause.  Divine Oath is perfect I two starts, both on turf and will be making his stakes and poly debut.

Pletcher will also send out Supermonic (8-1) who was supplemented for $15,000 and Global Strike (15-1) who is cross-entered in the Illinois Derby (G3) at Hawthorne.

Just a reminder that both Keeneland and Aqueduct are dark on Easter Sunday.

Let’s head out to Keeneland for Saturday’s featured race of the day:

 

Keeneland Race 9 The Coolmore Lexington G3 (Post time 5:13 ET)

7 Ami’s Holiday   10-1

1 Mr Speaker   5-2

6 Divine Oath   3-1

2 Solitary Ranger    6-1

Analysis: Ami’s Holiday is making his first start off a 4 1/2 month layoff for the Josie Carroll barn. The colt showed plenty of promise as a juvenile, breaking his maiden in his debut and then winning the Grey (G3) in his first start around two turns on polytrack. He was the beaten favorite in his next two starts, a third in the Display in his last outing, beaten four lengths. He is proven over poly and the top two betting choices will be making their poly debuts here. The colt showed three slow works over the surface here and picks up Albarado for the first time. Worth a look if he goes off near his 10-1 morning line.

Mr Speaker rebounded from his seventh place finish in the Holy Bull (G2) on dirt with a good effort last out in the Palm Beach (G3) on turf. The colt drew a tough post, was outrun in the early going after having to steady and came with a good late run to come up just a half-length shy of the top spot. Three back the colt won the Dania Beach (G3) on turf. Pedigree wise he seems suited to the fake stuff, by Pulpit out of the Unbridled mare Salute ($103,808) who won on dirt. He is a logical threat here but his price may end up on the light side.

Divine Oath is also trying poly for the first time. The Todd Pletcher trainee is perfect in two starts on turf at Gulfstream Park. The colt broke his maiden in is debut and then beat Alw-1 optional claimers last out in a game effort. Three foes he beat that day came back to win in their next starts. The colt appears to have plenty of upside and looks like a threat if he takes to the new surface. The barn is 20% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to synth.

Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 9-2 or better.

EX: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7

TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,6,7,10

 

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