Going into Sunday’s action there are just three Breeders’ Cup Challenge races left to be decided, including the $250,000 Dixiana Bourbon (G3), the winner stamping a fees-paid trip to the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).
A full field of 14 along with a pair of also-eligibles were entered in the 1 1/16 mile test on the turf. The Chad Brown trained Ticonderoga is the 7-2 morning line favorite and will break from the two post with Javier Castellano in the irons.
After missing by a head in his debut to the talented Good Samaritan, the son of Tapit broke his maiden in his second career outing at Belmont Park going a mile on Sept. 10.
Brown won the Bourbon in 2012 with Balance the Books and has not won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.
Only Nownownow, who was second in the 2007 Bourbon parlayed that effort into a victory in the Juvenile Turf.
Brown will also saddle Heaven Is Waiting (10-1), who broke his maiden by a neck in his debut on Sept. 17 at Belmont Park.
Mark Casse, who won this race last year with Airoforce, who was beaten just a neck in the Juvenile Turf, sends out a pair as well.
Keep Quiet (9-2) is coming off a runner up finish in the With Anticipation (G2) at Saratoga and Ancient Warfare (10-1) was sixth in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile in his last outing.
The co-feature on Sunday’s card at Keeneland is the $500,000 Juddmonte Spinster (G1), a “Win and You’re In” race for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
A field of five will line up led by I’m a Chatterbox (4-5) and Paid Up Subscriber (7-2), who were fourth and fifth respectively in the Personal Ensign (G1) in their last starts.
Both races will be televised as part of the “Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series: Win and You’re In—presented by Lane’s End Farm and America’s Best Racing,” series, which gets underway at 5:00 ET.
Let’s head out to Keeneland for Sunday’s featured race of the day:
Keeneland Race 8 The Bourbon G3 (Post time 5:10 ET)
#2 Ticonderoga 7-2
#5 Keep Quiet 9-2
#11 Heaven Is Waiting 10-1
#10 Ancient Warfare 10-1
Analysis: Ticonderoga is coming off a sharp looking maiden score in his second career start at Belmont park. In his debut he ran a game second beaten a head by Good Samaritan, who returned to win the Summer (G2) at Woodbine in his next outing. The fifth place finisher J.S. Choice came back to break his maiden in his next outing and then ran second in the Pilgrim (G3) at Belmont Park on Oct. 1. Our top pick was a $850,000 Keeneland purchase, by Tapit out of the multiple graded stakes winner Keertana ($1 million). Brown won this race with Balance the Books in 2012.
Keep Quiet tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish in the With Anticipation (G2) last out at the Spa in his first start against winners. He picked up his maiden win two back at the Spa in gate to wire fashion, drawing clear to win by 5 1/4 lengths. He should be forwardly placed here with Geroux in the irons. He is out of a Sillery mare that has dropped seven other turf winners.
Heaven Is Waiting is the second runner sent out by Brown. The colt pressed the early pace and finished gamely to break his maiden in his debut by a neck at 4-1 at Belmont Park going long. Castellano sticks with our top pick but we get a suitable replacement with Gallardo, who recently shifted his tack to New York and is in to ride for this barn. The colt is out of a Kingmambo mare that has dropped two other turf winners. He draws a tough spot but still has plenty of upside.
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,5,10,11
TRI: 2,5 / 2,5,10,11 / 2,3,5,10,11
Michael’s Breeders’ Cup Reports includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race during the two-day Breeders’ Cup from Santa Anita on Nov. 4-5.
The Breeders’ Cup offers 13 championship races over two days, bringing together the best top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the world, this year to compete at Santa Anita.