The Grade 1 Arlington Million is the marquee event on Saturday’s International Festival of Racing card at Arlington Park, but the Grade 1 $750,000 Beverly D. might be the best wagering race.
A field of 11 will go to the post in the 1 3/16 mile turf event, with the winner earning an automatic starting spot in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, as the Beverly D. is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” series.
Five of the 11 in the field exit the Grade 1 Diana on July 19 at Saratoga, which was won by Somali Lemonade in an upset at 11-1. The Barclay Tagg trainee edged Stephanie’s Kitten by a neck.
Somali Lemonade wins 2014 Diana
European invaders have won this race the last two years, with Dank parlaying her victory last year into a win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. I’m A Dreamer won in 2012, then was fourth in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational and checked in sixth in the Filly & Mare Turf.
The Euro invaders look a notch below those two. Just a Judge (6-1) won the Irish 1000 Guineas (G1) last year but has lost six in a row since that victory.
Euro Charlie (8-1) was a close up third in the Coronation Stakes (G1) at Ascot and won the listed Valiant Skes in her last outing. No three-year-old filly has ever won the Beverly D.
Sparkling Beam (20-1) looks a cut below as well, a Group 3 winner last year, but just an allowance win in four starts in 2014.
The Chad Brown trained Alterite weakened to finish eighth in the Diana, but it was her first go off a layoff and she appears to have the best shot of turning the tables on Saturday afternoon.
Let’s head out to Arlington Park for Saturday’s featured betting race of the day:
Arlington Park Race 9 The Beverly D. G1 (4:54 CT)
9 Alterite 4-1
4 Emollient 5-1
5 Stephanie’s Kitten 7-2
1 Just the Judge 6-1
Analysis: Alterite prompted the early pace and ran out of gas in the stretch in a eighth place finish in the Diana (G1) last out, finishing behind a couple of these she faces again today as five of these exit that Grade 1 fixture at the Spa. The Chad Brown trainee was in a tough spot making her first start off an 8 1/2 month layoff.
She ran well in her first three starts last fall after crossing the pond, including winning the Garden City (G1) in her U.S. debut. She then was beaten just a neck in the QEII Cup (G1) at Keeneland and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), beaten just a length. She should be tighter here for a trainer that is 23% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff. She can handle the extra ground and we likely are going to get a fair price in this wide-open field.
Emollient also ran in the Diana and she was ninth, beaten 5 1/4 lengths at 5-1. The filly was rank in the early going and had to be taken up early and then again heading into the first turn. She was still a bit rank fighting the rider until the far turn and did not have enough punch left late.
Two back she was beaten just a nose in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita and she is a Grade 1 winner on poly and turf. She is better than she showed last out and may offer decent value here.
Stephanie’s Kitten raced near the back of the pack after jostling a bit with a foe, came with a four wide run into the stretch and finished strongly to come up just a neck short of winning the Diana. She needs to have things go right for her and see some pace in front of her.
It looks as if she will get an honest pace to run at and Dettori sticks for another go. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and will be running late.
WIN: #9 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 1,4,5,9
TRI: 4,9 /1,4,5,9 / 1,4,5,6,9
Michael’s Saratoga Report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike has been handicapping the New York Racing circuit on a daily basis for nearly three decades. Get the remainder of the meeting for just $59.95!