American Oaks at Santa Anita Analysis

American Oaks

The $300,000 American Oaks is the final Grade 1 race of 2018. (photo credit: santaanita.com)

A field of eight three-year-old fillies line up on Saturday in the final Grade 1 race of the 2018 calendar year, the $300,000 American Oaks (G1) at Santa Anita.

Saturday’s 10 race card at Santa Anita also features the $150,000 Robert J. Frankel (G3), a nine-furlong test on turf for fillies and mares that drew a field of eight.

The American Oaks is led by 5-2 morning line favorite Californiagoldrush with Flavien Prat aboard. The daughter of Cape Blanco has won three of her four career starts, winning the Sands Point (G2) at Belmont park on Sept. 15 over yielding ground in her last outing.

Her main foes will be Paved, who is looking to bounce back off her 12th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) and Competitionofideas, who ships in from New York for trainer Chad Brown off a third in the Winter Memories in a race taken off the turf.

The Frankel goes off as the fourth race on the card with Fahan Mura the 5-2 morning line favorite. The filly has won 6 of her 10 starts this year including wins in a pair of restricted stakes. She was 12th in the Matriarc (G1) in her last outing.

There are a pair of stake son tap at Aqueduct on Saturday—the $100,000 Alex M. Robb and the East View, both restricted to New York breds.

Let’s head out to Santa Anita for Saturday’s featured race of the day:

Santa Anita

Santa Anita Race 8 The American Oaks (G1) Post time 3:34 PT

6 Paved   3-1

8 Competitionofideas   4-1

9 Californiagoldrush   5-2

2 Colonia   6-1


Paved

The filly is back with three-year-olds here after a rough trip in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). In that outing she broke outward coming out of the gate, was bumped and had to check hard going into the first turn and never got untracked in a 12th place finish. Two back over the turf here at this distance against older she came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Rodeo Drive (G1), beaten a half-length for the top spot. The winner was Vasilka, who came back to win the Goldikova (G2) in her next outing on Nov. 4. The Michael McCarthy trainee won the Honeymoon (G2) back in June over the turf here.; She will appreciate the return to facing here own age here and figures to bounce back with a much better effort.

Competitionofideas

Trainer Chad Brown ships this filly in from New York where she is coming off a third in the off the turf Winter Memories which was her stakes debut. She was last early and was fanned out eight wide and made some good ground late, beaten 1 ¾ lengths for the top spot and she really did not get much pace to run at. She was an impressive maiden winner three back at Belmont Park and then beat Alw-1 foes in her first start against winners. She was a $325,000 Keeneland purchase, out of the stakes winner Devil by Design ($268,041). She looks as if she still has a ton of upside.

Californiagoldrush

The Neil Drysdale trainee shipped to New York last out won the won the Sands Point (G2) on yielding ground at nine furlongs in a sharp effort earning a career top speed fig. The third-place finisher was Colonia, who came back to win the Valley View in her next start at Keeneland on Oct. 19. Her lone loss was two back when she was third in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) which was her stakes debut and first start off a 6 ½ month layoff. Now she comes back off a three-month break for a barn that is 22% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.

Wagering:

WIN: Paved to win at 5-2 or better.

EXACTA: 6,8 / 2,6,8,9

TRIFECTA: 6,8 / 2,6,8,9 / 2,5,6,8,9

 

 

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