2012 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Betting Preview

Game On Dude

Game On Dude (center) headlines the field for the 2012 Breeders' Cup Classic

It may be tough to top the performance by Royal Delta on Friday, but a dozen runners including morning line favorite Game On Dude will line up on Saturday in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

The Classic the 12th race on the Santa Anita card, the last of nine Breeders’ Cup races to be decided on Saturday. The race will be televised live on NBC during a one hour telecast that gets underway at 8:00 ET.

Royal Delta successfully defended her title in the $2 million Ladies’ Classic (G1) on Friday, with jockey Mike Smith jumping out to the early lead and the brilliant filly went gate to wire to beat a strong field, with My Miss Aurelia landing second.

The first of the nine Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday is the $1 million Juvenile Turf (G1), which drew a full field of 14 along with one also-eligible, with six overseas invaders.

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf yesterday, Flotilla shipped across the pond to pull off the upset, returning $24.80. U.S. based runners Watsdachances and Summer of Fun completed the exacta and trifecta.

The Roger Charlton trained Dundonnell (4-1), a Group 3 winner is the 4-1 morning line favorite, but the U.S. has a few contenders that look competitive including Joha (6-1) and Noble Tune (6-1).

Musical Romance is back to defend her title in the $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), but she is going to play second fiddle in the wagering to Groupie Doll (1-1), who comes into the race riding a four race win streak. Her last two wins came over synthetic surfaces, but she posted a career top Beyer Speed Figure of 112 three back winning the Humana Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs.

The $1 million Dirt Mile (G1) drew a solid field of nine led by Met Mile (G1) winner Shackleford (2-1) and Forego (G1) winner Emcee (5-2).

Shackleford, shown here winning the Met Mile (G1) is 2-1 on the morning line for Saturday's Dirt Mile © Cheryl Quigley | Dreamstime.com

The Turf Sprint (G1) is one of the trickiest races on the card, drawing a full field that will be going 6 ½ furlongs on the downhill turf course.

The eight-year-old California Flag (6-1) won the race in 2009 and while he is getting long in the tooth he is coming into the race in sharp form. He will do battle with the likes of Woodford (G3) winner Bridgetown (9-2) and Eddie D (G3) winner Unbridled’s Note (5-1).

The $2 million Juvenile (G1) will be the last time we have to talk about the lack of Lasix for the rest of the championship event.

Shanghai Bobby (2-1) comes into the race undefeated in four career starts, but only Fortify (9-2) has raced without the use of the medication.

Point of Entry (5-2) is going to be the likely favorite in the Turf (G1) despite the reappearance of last year’s winner St Nicholas Abbey (7-2) and the talented filly Shareta (G1).

There are several other intriguing runners in the field including the speedy Little Mike (12-1) and Dullahan (12-1), who is a three time Grade 1 winner on the fake stuff but 0 for 4 on turf.

The $1.5 million Sprint (G1) is a crapshoot as usual, with a full field of 14 lining up this year.  Defending champion Amazombie (4-1) looks vulnerable, and perhaps Vosburgh (G1) winner  The Lumber Guy (6-1) or the three that finished ahead of Amazombie last out can beat him.

Coil (5-1) won the Santa Anta Sprint Championship (G1) last out, followed by Capital Account (8-1) and Jimmy Creed (6-1).

Since Goldikova is not here this year, perhaps a U.S. based runner can  win another $2 million Mile (G1). Court Vision pulled off the big upset last year, ending the three year reign of the brilliant mare.

Wise Dan (9-5) is just a freak and comes into the race riding a three race win streak and is a head short of having a seven race streak.

He is going to face a couple of imposing Euros in Excelebration (2-1) who seems to be able to beat everyone in the world not named Frankel, and the multiple Group 1 winning filly Moonlight Cloud (6-1).

Travers winner Alpha is 20-1 on the morning line for the Breeders' Cup Classic

The mystery horse in the field is 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (8-1), who has not run since February.

The day closes out with Horse of the Year honors up for grabs in the $5 million Classic. Game On Dude (9-5) is an imposing figure and perfect in five trips over the Santa Anita main track.

He faces a solid group including Grade 1 winners Flat Out (5-1), Fort Larned (5-1), To Honor and Serve (8-1), and Ron the Greek (6-1).

Hall of fame trainer Bill Mott swept the Ladies’ Classic and Classic last year with Royal Delta and Drosselmeyer, and is halfway to repeating that amazing feat this year.

He has three bullets: Flat Out, Ron the Greek, and To Honor and Serve, and of the three I think To Honor and Serve may end up offering the best value, but he is going to have to run a career top to get the job done.

The NBC Sports Network will televise the action starting at 3:30ET, and then NBC will show the Classic live during a one hour telecast that starts at 8:00 ET

Michael Dempsey’s Breeders’ Cup Report $20.00
Michael’s Breeders’ Cup Report for Saturday includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the 12-race card Santa Anita Park on Nov. 3.

Let’s head out to Santa Anita for Saturday’s play of the day:

Santa Anita Race 9 The BC Turf G1 (Post time 3:18 PT)

3 St Nicholas Abbey   7-2

1 Point of Entry    3-1

5 Shareta   7-2

4 Treasure Beach   12-1

Analysis: St. Nicholas Abbey is back to defend his title in the Turf, and the Euros have dominated in this race in the past decade. I am going to excuse his 11th place finish in the Arc de Triomphe (G1) last out at Longchamp as the turf was boggy and heavy. He was third in his previous three starts, all in Group 1 company behind such talented runners as Frankel, Snow Fairy, and Danedream. He looks more than capable of winning back here for the O’Brien barn. The trainer is 6 for 74 overall in BC races, two of those winners coming last year.

Point of Entry is going to end up the betting favorite in here and come sin riding a five race win streak, his last three in Grade 1 company. The colt handles any type of ground, winning over yielding footing in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) last out and over firm footing two back in the Sword Dancer (G1), both at today’s 1 1/2 mile distance. The Shug McGaughey trainee  has won 7 of 14 career starts overall and he looks like a legit threat here and is not facing nearly as tough of a group coming from overseas as we have seen in past years. The 3-1 morning line looks fair enough on this guy, but seems likely the price is going to be shorter by post time.

Shareta takes on the boys here and we have seen a couple of ladies win this race, but not since Miss Alleged in 1991. She did not care for the heavy going in the Arc in a ninth place finish, running second in that race last year over firmer ground. Two and three back she won the Qatar Prix Vermeille (G1) at Longchamp and the Yorkshire Oaks (G1) at York. In her win at York she beat the very talented The Fugue, who goes on Friday in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Treasure Beach is a well traveled runner also sent out by the O’Brien barn. He has lost eight in a row since taking the Secretariat (G1) last summer at Arlington Park. Two back in the Arlington Million (G1) he was caught in tight at the start and came with a wide run to finish sixth, beaten 3 1/2 lengths, and then put in a solid effort last out last out behind Point of Entry in a runner up finish in the Joe Hirsch, beaten 1 3/4 lengths. He looks headed in the right direction and is worth tossing in the mix here if he goes off near his 12-1 morning line.

Wagering

WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.

EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,5

TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5,12

 

Aqueduct Fall/Winter Meet Special $139.95

Michael Dempsey’s full card reports for Aqueduct Fall/Winter meeting between Nov. 2 and Dec. 31 which includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. EARLY SIGN UP BONUS: Michael’s BREEDERS’ CUP PACKAGE INCLUDED FREE! All Big A Reports until the end of the year (37 racing days) PLUS the Breeders’ Cup Reports. A $497.00 value if reports purchased separately. NOW ONLY $139.95!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022


DRF Past Performances



Check out the most powerful
interactive Past Performances
used by Michael Dempsey. Use the code TENOFF19 which gives
you a 10% discount on any DRF Formulator plan that is one month or longer.


drf


Free Horse Racing Picks

Get free horse racing picks each day from expert race handicapper Michael Dempsey Click Here


Belmont Stakes News & Reports
Breeders' Cup
Turf ‘n’ Sport handicapper Michael Dempsey has the Belmont Stakes covered with his selections, analysis and fair odds for every race on the card!
Wager on the Belmont Stakes
Belmont Stakes News

Belmont Stakes Reports

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Horse Racing Betting Tips
Turf 'n' Sport handicappers give out basic horse racing handicapping information..