With just one week to go before Election Day, the betting odds for the 2020 Presidential Election are pointing to a victory by Joe Biden.
Betting odds have not changed much in the past month, Biden the current favorite between -165 and -200 while Trump is the underdog, the best price currently at +175 at BetOnline.
Over the past six months the race has come down to three main issues for voters—the pandemic, the economy and social injustice.
While Trump has kept with the narrative that the pandemic “will magically disappear” he and the First Lady contracted it, along with a couple of dozen people within the administration. Now Vice President Mike Pence, the leader of the Coronavirus Task Force has several people in his orbit that have contracted the virus.
Voters are asking how the administration can keep them safe when they can’t even control the pandemic within the walls of the White House.
While positives tests have reached a record level over the last few days, the economy and social injustice have taken a backseat to Covid-19. Despite Trump saying we are “rounding the corner” voters are not buying it except for the large crowds of supporters that show up not wearing masks at his rallies.
Latest Presidential Betting Odds
The latest odds from our Top Sportsbooks:
Trump supporters note the large crowds and enthusiasm as a reason the President will get reelected. They are going to be disappointed.
Trump supporters also reference 2016 when Hillary Clinton had the lead in the polls and Trump pulled off the upset with an Electoral College advantage of 306 to 232 despite losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million.
2016 Electoral College Results
Can history repeat itself in this crazy year of 2020?
The simple answer is no, it can’t and won’t.
With eight days to go in 2016 Clinton held a 4% edge in national polling. As of today, Biden holds a 9.2% edge in national polling averages, more than double the lead Clinton had. Those numbers have stayed steady over the past three months.
Another key factor is Clinton was one of the most unpopular presidential candidates in recent memory. While Biden has not created as much excitement as his party would have liked, he is much more popular than Clinton was, and Trump has far exceeded Clinton in the unlikable department.
However, looking at national polls is an oversimplification. It is going to come down to several key battleground states, much like it did in 2016.
Trump’s victory in 2016 came most notably from his wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania where he racked up 46 Electoral votes.
This year it appears that Wisconsin and Michigan are going back blue, Biden up by 6.8% and 8% respectively in average polling numbers at Fivethirtyeight.
That would make Pennsylvania a must win for Trump. Biden has a 5.6% edge today.
There is not good news for Trump in other key states as well.
Trump took Arizona in 2016 with 11 Electoral votes, and currently is down 2.9%. In Florida Biden is up 2.2% and it would be no surprise to see the state flip. Trump took Georgia in 2016 but is now deadlocked, with Biden holding a 0.4% edge.
Even Ohio and Texas could be in play for Biden, with Trump holding edges of just 1.6% and 0.9%. Trump won North Carolina in 2016 with 15 Electoral votes and currently trails by 2.4%.
Trump’s path to another victory is getting smaller by the day.
Tracking the Odds
There has been record early voting with over 60 million already casting their votes either in early voting or mailing in their ballots.
Most states are setting records for turnout, which in all likelihood favors Biden. In Florida over six million votes are in. There has been 2,555,072 Democrats that have cast their ballots with 2,200,418 cast by Republicans.
There have been 1,188,951 votes cast by voters with no party affiliation and another 73,989 with minor party affiliations that have voted. In most key states I would assume those independent voters would lean slightly toward Biden.
With over 60 million votes already cast, Trump needs a big turnout on Election Day. Biden figures to have a lead heading into the final day. Trump is going to need things to go smoothly at the polls, must have a big turnout and needs to hope Mother Nature does not throw in a couple of curve balls around the country.
Trump is saying at his rallies he has a “big lead in the polls” he is “winning Pennsylvania” and predicted his Electoral College margin will be bigger than it was in 2016.
None of those things look probable and come Jan. 20 it sure looks as if Trump himself “will magically disappear.”