Betting on Favorite in La Verdad Gives Us Pause

Pauseforthecause headlines a group of seen that go postward in Saturday’s $100,000 La Verdad at Aqueduct. (Photo credit: Bigstock.com)

Fillies and mares line up in Saturday’s $100,000 la Verdad at Aqueduct led by Pauseforthecause, the 3-5 morning line favorite.

The seven furlong sprint drew a field of seven with Pauseforthecause back in facing state breds after she won the Garland of Roses in gate to wire fashion in her last outing on Dec. 8.

The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee has won three of her nine starts this year and won the Iroquois two back in her last start against state breds.

“She’s really on a good roll and beat open company last time,” said McLaughlin. “It is seven furlongs and it might be wet – which both are not ideal – but she’s a different filly now. She’s won three in a row impressively. I don’t think the wet will bother us and hopefully the seven furlongs doesn’t, either.”

At such a short price I’ll lean toward Kept True (4-1) who is coming off a sharp win over the Aqueduct main track, her fourth win in eight career starts.

The race is named after the Linda Rice trained La Verdad, who won 16 of her 25 career starts and earned $1,563,200. She won nine of her first 11 career starts and won three Grade 2 races.

Her lone start in a Grade 1 was in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) where she ran second to Wavell Avenue.

My Best Plays for Saturday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Santa Anita. The $100,000 Sham (G3) tops the Santa Anita card. The race is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

Let’s head out to Aqueduct for Saturday’s featured race of the day:

Aqueduct

Aqueduct Race 8 The La Verdad (Post time 3:55 ET)

#3 Kept True 4-1

#2 Pauseforthecause 3-5

#5 Cash Offer 5-1

#4 Indy’s Lady 12-1

Kept True

This filly prompted the early pace and finished gamely to beat state bred non-conditioned allowance company last out going six furlongs over the main track here. It was her fourth win in eight career starts. She has not been seven furlongs or traveled over a wet track. She does look as if she can get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace and has the best shot of beating the chalk in here. She does have a solid off track pedigree if the rains come, by Yes It’s True out of a Henny Hughes mare.

Pauseforthecause

The McLaughlin trainee took the field gate to wire to win the Garland of Roses last out at six furlongs here for her third win in a row and has earned back to back career tops. She wired the field two back to win the state bred Iroquois at 6 1/2 furlongs. She has landed in the money in all eight of her trips over the Aqueduct main track and was third in this race last year at 9-5. She will be an even lower price here and is 0 for 2 at seven furlongs and 0 for 3 on wet tracks. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers but speed really did not fare two well over the last 10 days here.

Cash Offer

She tracked the early pace and came with a good late rally to beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers last out in a race washed off the turf. Two back at the same level she ran second to repeat winner Hay Field, who came back to beat state bred Alw-2 foes again in her next start here on Dec. 15. She appears to be the biggest early pace threat to the chalk in here but Lezcano did take her back last out and may do the same thing here. The jock has been on quite a roll at the meeting, hitting at a 30% clip.