Baffert Trio Takes on Law in Breeders’ Cup Classic

Breeders' Cup

10 go to the post in Saturday’s $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland. (Photo credit: Breeders’ Cup Ltd.)

A field of 10 will line up in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) led by a trio of runners from the Bob Baffert barn as well as the Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Derby winners.

The Hall of Fame trainer will saddle 5-2 morning line Improbable as well as multiple Grade 1 winner Maximum Security (7-2) and Kentucky Derby winner Authentic (6-1).

He faces a tough group led by Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law, Alysheba (G2) winner By My Standards, and Tom’s d’Etat (6-1), who won last year’s Clark (G1).

Speaking of law, Baffert has been dogged by recent drug violations which led him to release a press release this week stating, “I want to raise the bar and set the standard for equine safety and rule compliance going forward. For those of you that have been upset over the incidents of this past year, I share in your disappointment.”

In May Charlatan and Gamine tested positive after races for Lidocaine at Oaklawn Park and Gamine had another bad test after the Kentucky Oaks, that time for betamethasone, a regulated corticosteroid. He still has open cases involving Justify and Hoppertunity after they tested positive in 2018.

Tiz the Law appears to be the biggest threat to the Baffert trio. The Barclay Tagg trainee has won six of his eight starts, last out unable to match strides with Authentic in the Kentucky Derby.

2020 Kentucky Derby Replay

“I’ve got confidence in the horse, but I don’t have confidence in the luck. A lot can happen in a race,” Tagg said. “It seems like he’s coming up to it well, so I’ve got no complaints.”

By My Standards is a consistent colt who is coming into the race flying under the radar for trainer Bret Calhoun and is worth a look at a price.

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Let’s head out to Keeneland for Saturday’s featured race of the day:


Keeneland Race 12 The Breeders’ Cup Classic G1 (5:18 ET)

#2 Tiz the Law   3-1

#3 By My Standards   10-1

#8 Improbable   5-2

#10 Maximum Security   7-2

#9 Authentic   6-1

Tiz the Law

The Barclay Tagg has to beat not one, not two but three Baffert runners in here. The colt had a four race winning streak snapped last out in the Kentucky Derby where he was beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Authentic who took the field gate to wire. Our top pick regressed off a career top earned winning the Travers (G1) at Saratoga at 1 1/4 miles. The colt seems to run better with a bit more spacing between his races which he gets today. The colt should get a perfect stalking trip behind what could be a lively early pace and he has shown he can handle the distance. He bounces back with a better effort in this spot. Three-year-olds have fared well in this race, winning 5 of the last 13 editions. The colt has worked sharply here and appears to be sitting on a big effort.

By My Standards

This guy is going to get overlooked here but looks as if he can be in the mix here at a decent price. He had earned four straight triple digit Beyers, last out winning the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs over Owendale. He came up short to Improbable two back in the Whitney (G1) at the Spa, beaten two lengths. He was away poorly in that outing and Improbable was able to get the jump on him heading for home. His only try at 1 1/4 miles was last years’ Kentucky Derby (G1) where he had a lousy trip in a 12th place finish at 18-1. He is going to get a good trip sitting mid pack and if the speed starts to back up, he is going to be in a good spot heading for home.


The colt is the most likely of the Baffert trio to win here. The colt is coming off back to back career tops, winning the Whitney and Awesome Again (G1). He beat Maximum Security soundly by 4 1/2 lengths last out. He won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) three back at today’s 1 1/4-mile distance although that field did not come up that tough. His running style seems to suit the way the pace flow of this race is setting up although he likely is going to be a short price. The 5-2 morning line just seems on the light side in this spot.


WIN: Tiz the Law to win at 3-1 or better.

EXACTA: 2 / 3,8,10 and 2,3 / 2,3,8,10


NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022

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