2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf Betting Trends

Breeders' Cup

The Euros look tough in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). (Photo credit: Breeders’ Cup Ltd.).

Trainer Aiden O’Brien has owned the $4 million Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), winning it six times in the past 19 years and he is primed to add to that total this year.

O’Brien will saddle two of the early favorites in early Breeders’ Cup Turf wagering at BUSR in Magical and Mogul.

Magical ran second in the 2018 Turf behind the great Enable. The mare has won three Group 1 races in 2020 and came up short in a third-place finish in the QIPCO Champion Stakes (G1) last out over ground she did not care much for.

Mogul is a three-year-old colt who has won four of his nine starts, taking the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (G1) at Longchamp in his last start on Sept. 13 at 8-1.

The home team will be well represented by the Bill Mott trained Channel Maker, the winner of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and United, who missed in this race last year by a head at 51-1. The Richard Mandela trainee won the John Henry Turf Championship (G2) at Santa Anita in his last outing.

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Turf by the Digits: (last 10 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $17.48
Avg. Exacta payoff: $88.48
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.4
Betting Favorites All time: 11 for 36
2019 Winner: Bricks and Mortar ($4.00)
Winner final prep: Won Arlington Million (G1)
Runner up: United
Runner up final prep: 3rd in John Henry Turf (G2)

2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf Betting Trends

  • Euro invaders making their last start across the pond have accounted for 21 of the 37 winners (there was one deadheat) of the Turf including 16 of the last 21.
  • The betting favorite has won the Turf 11 times in the 36-year history of the race. We have had back to back chalk. The 2018 winner Enable was the shortest price in history, returning just $3.60 and topping a $2 All Euro exacta that paid $26.80. She was the first betting favorite to score since Conduit ($3.80) in 2009. Bricks and Mortar paid just $4.00 last year for trainer Chad Brown.
  • The betting favorite has landed in the superfecta 11 years in a row, in the trifecta in eight of those years.
  • The top exacta in the history of the Turf was in 1989 with the Neil Drysdale trained Prized (8-1) and Sierra Roberta (25-1) combing for a $818.00 payoff.
  • In nine of the last 13 years the Turf winner had a previous win at 1 ½ miles.
  • The outside posts have fared well. We have seen eight Turf winners break from the 11-13 posts.
  • Aiden O’Brien has won the Turf six times from 25 starters including three times in the last seven years. Three of his winners have come with three-year-olds.
  • The Arc has produced a dozen Turf winners, with Enable in 2018 the lone winner that actually won the Arc.
  • Horses prepping at Belmont Park have fared very well, eight using the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and four having run in the Man O’ War (G1). The Irish Champion Stakes (G1) has produced four Turf winners.
  • There have been nine three-year-olds that have won the Turf, the most recent being Found in 2015. Seven of the nine were Euro based. The exceptions were Manila in 1986 and Prized in 1989.
  • Four fillies have won the Turf, and they too were all based overseas: Enable (2018), Found (2015), Miss Alleged (1991) and Pebbles (1985).
  • The outside posts have fared well recently, the 11-post winning twice and the 12 post once in the past seven years.
  • Only four Turf winners have taken the field gate to wire, the most recent being Highland Reel ($9.60) at Santa Anita in 2016.
  • It is possible to win the Turf without having won a Grade or Group 1 race as it has been accomplished eight times including Talismanic in 2017. Seven of the eight Turf winners without a Group or Grade 1 win were Euro invaders.
  • Trainer’s records in the Turf: Aiden O’Brien 6 for 25, Brad Cox 0 for 2, Bill Mott 2 for 17, John Gosden 1 for 8, Graham Motion 2 for 7, Dermot Weld 0 for 3, Phil D’Amato 0 for 4.


NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022

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