2020 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Trends

Distaff Betting Trends

Monomoy Girl is the early betting favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). (Photo credit: Jessica Morgan/Eclipse Sportswire/CSM /Breeders Cup).

This year’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) will give Monomoy Girl an opportunity to become just the fourth filly or mare to win the race twice.

The Brad Cox trainee is the early betting favorite for the Distaff at BUSR at odds of 3-2. She won the Distaff in 2018 and makes just her fourth start since having been on the sidelines for the entire year in 2019.

Standing in her way is Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Swiss Skydiver, who was cross-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) but appears more likely to take on the ladies in the Distaff.

The Ken McPeek trainee has won 5 of her 9 starts this year and a win in the Distaff would put her in the Horse of the Year race. She is the current second choice in early Distaff wagering at BUSR at 11-4.

McPeek is looking to get off the duck, currently 0 for 31 with Breeders’ Cup starters in his career. His stock has run well as he has had six run second and 10 run third and he has won $3.3 million in purses.

The trainer of Ollie’s Candy knows a little something about getting off the duck. John Sadler went into the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic without a win and finally got it with Accelerate. Sadler is now 1 for 50 in the Breeders’ Cup.

Trainer Chad Brown has won 15 Breeders’ Cup races, but the Distaff has eluded him with four starters. His best finish was with Wow Cat, who ran second in 2018. Brown will saddle Dunbar Road, who was fifth in last year’s Distaff. She is currently listed at 16-1 in early Distaff betting at BUSR.

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Distaff by the Digits: (last 10 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $10.12
Avg. Exacta payoff: $49.44
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 102.8
Betting Favorites All time: 15 for 36
2019 Winner: Blue Prize ($19.80)
Winner final prep: Won Spinster (G1)
Runner up: Midnight Bisou
Runner up final prep: Won in Beldame (G2)


2020 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Trends

  • Bayakoa (1989-90) and Royal Delta (2011-12) are the only back to back winners of the Distaff. Beholder won the race in 2013 and 2016, the latter just the third six-year-old to win the race, Blue Prize making it four at that age last year.
  • 12 of the last 13 winners of the race have come into the race owning at least one Grade 1 victory.
  • The Spinster at Keeneland is a key race, producing 11 winners of the Distaff including last year with Blue Prize. The Beldame has produced nine winners with the Ruffian and Zenyatta seven each.
  • Over the past 16 years there has only been one wire winner, Royal Delta ($5.40) in 2012.
  • Three-year-old fillies have won the Distaff 11 times including three of the last seven editions.
  • Blue Prize became the fourth six-year-old to win the Distaff. There have been four five-year-old winners and 17 four-year-olds winning the race.
  • In two of the past five years winners came back off a 69-day break (Forever Unbridled in 2017) and a 62-day break (Stopchargingmaria in 2015). Escena won off the longest break at 71 days in 1998.
  • The top exacta payoff was in 2005 with Pleasant Home (30-1) topping Society Selection (11-1) for a $692.00 payday. Only one of the last 10 exactas paid $100+, Stopchargingmaria topping a $2 exacta that paid $155.80 in 2015 at Keeneland.
  • Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Distaff five times including three in a row from 2010 to 2012.
  • The one and seven posts have been best in the Distaff with seven winners each. The three post is 0 for 35 while the 12-14 posts are a combined 1 for 14. Blue Prize broke from the 11 post last year. She became the third to win from that post position.
  • Since 2002 the betting favorite has won the Distaff seven times in 18 editions. That was not the case in 2015 at Keeneland where the top three betting choices ran out of the money. Stopchargingmaria (7-1), Stellar Wind (7-1) and Curalina (9-1) combined for a $1 trifecta that paid $709.70.
  • Trainers race records for this race: Chad Brown 0 for 4, Bill Mott 5 for 14, Brad Cox 1 for 1, Eddie Kenneally 0 for 1, John Sadler 0 for 7, Ken McPeek 0 for 2, Todd Pletcher 2 for 19.


NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022

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