2019 Breeders’ Cup Mile Betting Trends

Goldikova won the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) an unprecedented three times, the last one coming in 2010. (Photo by © Breeders’ Cup/Thom Shelby 2010)

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) has been won by plenty of superstars including Lure, Wise Dan, Miesque and the great Goldikova, who won three in a row from 2008 to 2010.

While it appears Horse of the Year candidate Bricks and Mortar is heading to the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), this year’s field might be lacking in star power but will have an intriguing group of European invaders along with several fillies and mares taking on the boys that are contenders.

The early wagering favorite for the Mile at US Racing is Circus Maximus at 3-1. The Aiden O’Brien trainee won the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) in his last outing. Back in June at Royal Ascot he won the St. James Palace Stakes (G1).

The filly Got Stormy has already beaten the boys, an impressive winner of the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 10. Her final prep was a game second in the Woodbine Mile (G1) on Sept. 14. She is currently 11-2 in early Mile betting odds at USRacing.

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The five-year-old mare Uni was third in the Fourstardave and came back to win the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland in her most recent start, The Chad Brown trainee comes into the Mile lightly raced with just three starts under her belt this year. She is 6-1 in early Mile odds at US Racing.

• While the Euros have dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf in recent years, the home team has done well in the Mile, winning six of the last eight and 21 of 35 overall.
• The Euros hold a five to four edge in the Mile over U.S. based runners in the nine runnings at Santa Anita.
• The betting favorite has won the Mile a dozen times in the 35 editions and five of the nine that were contested at Santa Anita.
• There have been 10 three-year-olds win the Mile. Among those, eight were Euro invaders including the last four.
• Eight fillies and mares have beaten the boys in the Mile. Three of those were by Goldikova, who pulled off the hat trick from 2008 through 2010. Seven of the eight were Euros, the lone exception the Mark Casse trained Tepin who wo in 2015 at Keeneland.
• Trainer Aiden O’Brien, who has won a dozen Breeders’ Cup races including the Breeders’ Cup Turf six times is a remarkable 0 for 23 in the Mile. He has saddled the runner up four times.
• We have only seen two wire winners of the race, Lure at Gulfstream Park in 1992 and again in 1993 at Santa Anita.
• The key U.S. preps are the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland and the Woodbine Mile (G1), each have produced seven winners. The top Euro race is the Jacques Le Marois (G1) at Deauville which has also produced seven winners.
• Last year’s winner Expert Eye ($13.80) exited the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp (G1), the sixth Mile winner to use that race as a prep. He was he first to win the Mile without a previous Grade or Group 1 win since Court Vision in 2011.
• Expert Eye was the first Mile winner to not have a previous win at the distance in the history of the race. His previous wins came at six and seven furlongs.
• We have seen two exactas in the Mile pay over $1,000 topped by the Court Vision (64-1) and Turallure (11-1) combo that paid $1980 in 2011.
• Post positions 11 and 12 have each produced three winners, while the 13 and 14 posts are a combined 1 for 40.