2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Betting Trends

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Game Winner gave Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert his fourth win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year. (Photo credit: Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/CSM /Breeders’ Cup Ltd.)

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) not only tends to crown the champion two-year-old, it produces the early betting favorite for next spring’s Kentucky Derby (G1).

Dennis’ Moment is the current favorite for the 2020 Kentucky Derby at 12-1 but is the second choice in early Breeders’ Cup Juvenile wagering at US Racing at 9-4.

The current betting favorite for the Juvenile is the Bob Baffert trained Eight Rings at 2-1. The colt is the second choice in early Derby wagering at US Racing at 16-1.

Both of the top contenders have three races under their belt but only two where they crossed the finish line with a jockey aboard.

Dennis’ Moment clipped heels and dropped Robby Albarado in his debut, then came back to break his maiden by 19 ¼ lengths. He then won the Iroquois (G3) in his stakes debut.

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Eight Rings was a smart looking maiden winner in his debut, then veered out and dropped jockey Drayden Van Dyke in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He came back to win the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita by six lengths.

Juvenile by the Digits: (last nine years)
Avg. Win payoff: $14.42
Avg. Exacta payoff: $93.67
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 95.5
Betting Favorites All time: 12 for 35

Winner:  Game Winner ($4.00)
Winner final prep: won American Pharoah (G1)
Runner up:  Knicks Go
Runner up final prep: won
Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
  • Game Winner snapped a five-race losing streak for favorites in the Juvenile last year, returning $4.00. Favorites have won 12 of 35 all time and 2 of 9 at Santa Anita. The $4.00 payoff was the shortest since the first running in 1984 where Chief’s Crown paid $3.40.
  • Despite a chalky winner last year, the exacta still paid $113.20 with 40-1 longshot Knicks Go runnings second. It was the fifth time in the last six years the exacta paid $100+.
  • The Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park has produced the most Juenile winners at nine. Next comes the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita with seven and the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland with six. Th American Pharoah has produced the winner in three of the last five years.
  • The last five Juvenile winners exited Grade 1 company. The last to not do so was New Year’s Day in 2013 who was exiting his maiden victory.
  • It is possible to win the Juvenile off a maiden score. In addition to New Year’s Day, Action This Day in ’03 accomplished the feat, and Good Magic was still a maiden last year, having run second in a maiden race and then runner up in the Champagne in his two career starts.
  • Only three winners have gone sprint to route—Brocco (’93), Johannesburg (’01) and Stevie Wonderboy (’05).
  • Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s win with Game Winner last year was his fourth Juvenile score with 26 starters. Other notable trainers include Todd Pletcher who is 2 for 20, Chad Brown is 1 for 4, Dale Romans is 0 for 8 and Steve Asmussen is 0 for 7.
  • 10 of the 35 Juvenile winners took the field gate to wire including three of the last eight.
  • Post position three has produced the most winners at six. Five winners have broken form post five. Posts 10 through 14 are a combined 5 for 107.



NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

No. Horse Points
1 Flightline 351
2 Life Is Good 306
3 Olympiad 292
4 Jackie's Warrior 282
5 Clairiere 142
5 Country Grammer 142
7 Epicenter 121
8 Regal Glory 89
9 Nest 87
10 Hot Rod Charlie 48
As of August 1, 2022

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