2019 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Trends

Monomoy Girl was the 15th betting favorite to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) last year at Churchill Downs. (Photo credit: Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/CSM /Breeders Cup Ltd.)

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) could produce the 2019 Horse of the Year with Midnight Bisou attempting to complete a perfect year with her eighth win of her campaign.

The Steve Asmussen trainee was third in last year’s edition of the Distaff and has reeled off seven wins this year including three Grade 1 victories. She is the current 5-4 betting favorite in early Breeders’ Cup Distaff wagering at US Racing.

Her main rival Elate will take on the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), but she still faces a solid group of fillies and mares.

Among those are Spinster (G1) winner Blue Prize, the Chad Brown trained Dunbar Road who won the Alabama (G1) this summer at Saratoga and was third in the Spinster, and Zenyatta (G1) winner Paradise Woods.

• Monomoy Girl became the 15^th betting favorite to win the Distaff in the 35 runnings last year. See of the last eight winners have paid single digits, the lone exception Stopchargingmaria at $16.20 in 2015.
• Favorites have performed well at Santa Anita, taking five of the nine editions. We did see one bomb here in 2003, Adoration returning $83.40 in 2003.
• Bayakoa (1989-90) and Royal Delta (2011-12) are the only back to back winners of the Distaff. Beholder won the race in 2013 and 2016, the latter just the third six-year-old to win the race.
• 11 of the last dozen winners of the race have come into the race owning at least one Grade 1 victory.
• The Spinster at Keeneland is a key race, producing 10 winners of the Distaff. The Beldame has produced nine winners and the Ruffian and Zenyatta seven each.
• Over the past 15 years there has only been one wire winner, Royal Delta ($5.40) in 2012.
• Three-year-old fillies have won the Distaff 11 times including three of the last six editions.
• In two of the past four years winners came back off a 69-day break (Forever Unbridled in 2017) and a 62-day break (Stopchargingmaria in 2015). Escena won off the longest break at 71 days in 1998.
• The top exacta payoff was in 2005 with Pleasant Home (30-1) topping Society Selection (11-1) for a $692.00 payday. Only one of the last nine exactas paid $100+, Stopchargingmaria topping a $2 exacta that paid $155.80 in 2015 at Keeneland.
• Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Distaff five times including three in a row from 2010 to 2012.
• The one and seven posts have been best in the Distaff with seven winners each. The three post is 0 for 35 while the 12-14 posts are a combined 1 for 14.

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