Kentucky Downs All Stakes Pick 4 Analysis

Four stakes make up a Pick 4 on Saturday’s outstanding card at Kentucky Downs. (Photo credit: Kentucky Downs).

We go looking for greener pastures and bankroll with an All Stakes Pick 4 at Kentucky Downs with four stakes, three of them graded. The Pick 4 kicks off with the seventh race with a post time of 4:18 CT.

The short meeting at Kentucky Downs features all grass racing and big purses. In addition, the track is rated #1 by the Horseplayer Association of North America and offers one of the most horseplayer friendly betting menus and takeout rates.

With the discovery that Los Alamitos is hiking their rates along with Keeneland, it is good to see at least one track that offers both big fields and lower takeout.

For example, trifecta takeout is 19%, compared to 24% at Belmont Park and as high as 31% at Penn National.

Here is a look at each race of the Pick 4:

KD Race 7 The Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf G3 (4:18 CT)

Zipessa faded to finish ninth in the Beverly D. (G1) at Arlington Park and faces an easier group here. Shew as beaten just a nose two back in the Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park and last fall was a game second in the Rodeo Drive (G1). The cut back in distance should suit her and she appears to have the best shot of beating the chalk in here.

Miss Temple City did not fire at Royal Ascot and her return effort in a third-place finish in the Matchmaker (G3) at Monmouth park was not encouraging. Her back numbers are good enough to trounce this group but her price will be short and she looks as if she may have had the starch taken out of her in Dubai.

Selections: 4-5-2-1

 

KD Race 8 The Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint (4:46 CT)

Fair Point was near the back of the pack early and picked it up a bit late in a sixth-place finish in the Smart N Fancy last out. She was a game second two back in the Caress and it sure looks as if she is going to enjoy going 6 1/2 furlongs here. She has landed in the exacta in 6 of her 9 career starts on turf, running really well last year with four wins and three seconds in seven starts.

Mississippi Delta was not much of a threat last out in a seventh-place finish in the Caress last out. She won the Intercontinental (G3) two back at Belmont Park going seven furlongs. She also is the defending champ of this race, taking it last year as the betting favorite. She is better than she showed in her most recent outing.

Selections: 2-1-5-6

 

KD Race 9 The Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint G3 (5:14 CT)

Bondurant stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish third last out in the Forbidden Apple at Belmont Park going a mile. The winner Disco Partner is a record holder when he won the Jaipur (G3) in his previous start and the runner up Get Jets came back to win the NY bred West Point in his next outing. He comes in here off two solid figs and looks as if he will be able to handle the cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs here for the Wilkes barn that is 15% winners moving runners from route to sprint.

Commend made a good late rally to beat Alw-2 optional claimers at the Spa going 5 1/2 furlongs in his last outing. Two back in the Highlander (G2) at Woodbine going six furlongs he checked in fourth behind repeat winner Green Mask, who returned to win the Troy at the Spa in his next outing on Aug. 6. The Mott trainee appears headed in the right direction and should benefit from the extra ground here.

Selections: 5-10-1-6

 

KD Race 10 The Kentucky Turf Cup G3 (5:42 CT)

Analysis: Bullards Alley did not have the best trip in the American St. Leer (G3) last out at Arlington Park in a fifth-place finish. The gelding had to check nearing the 5/8’s when a foe ducked in on him and he came up lacking in the stretch. He was coming off a game neck loss two back in the Singspiel (G3) at Woodbine. He ran well in this race last year in a runner up finish at 18-1 and should be a decent price here.

Oscar Nominated tracked the early pace and did not have enough gas left late in a eighth place finish in the Arlington Million (G1), beaten 2 3/4 lengths. He has not won since taking the Dueling Grounds Derby here last September in his lone trip over the grass here. Three back he was only beaten three length sin the Woodward Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs. He gets some needed class relief here after taking on Grade 1 company in his last three starts.

Selections: 8-4-11-3

 

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