The 2016 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita kicks off on Friday and over the two days of action we have 13 championships races and plenty of great wagering opportunities.
It starts early, as the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) will get the festivities off to a great start, a full field heading to the gate including three Euro invaders.
Following the Juvenile Turf on Friday, we have the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and then one of the most anticipated races over the next two days, the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
Saturday’s 12-race card features the remaining nine Breeders’ Cup races including the $6 million Classic (G1).
First things first, we need to make some dough on Friday.
The Juvenile Turf is a good way to start. Euros have accounted for six of the nine winners of the race including last year with Hit It a Bomb ($16.40) for trainer Aiden O’Brien, who has won this race three times.
He sends out a pair of contenders in Lancaster Bomber (6-1) and Intelligence Cross (6-1).
The home team looks tough, led by Summer (G2) winner Good Samaritan (9-2), Pilgrim (G3) winner Oscar Performance (4-1), and the top two finishers of the Bourbon (G3)—Keep Quiet (12-1) and Ticonderoga (15-1).
The Dirt Mile is led by 6-5 morning line favorite Dortmund, looking to become the third consecutive chalk to win the race, following Goldencents and Liam’s Map.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf has six Euro invaders but the home team has held the advantage in this race, winning six of the eight editions.
That could change this year as the invaders look talented, led by the O’Brien trained Roly Poly (4-1) and Hydrangea (6-1), his son Joseph’s Intricately (6-1) as well as Spain Burg (5-1), who is now in the barn of Kathy Ritvo after being sold for $1.6 million.
The Distaff is led by three champions—Songbird (6-5), Beholder (5-2) and Stellar Wind (5-2), but the remaining cast features Grade 1 winners Curalina (12-1), Forever Unbridled (12-1) and I’m a Chatterbox (12-1).
The trio of longshots are not slouches and I think there is a chance one of them can pull off the upset.
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Let’s head out to Santa Anita for the start of the 2016 Breeders’ Cup:
Santa Anita Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf G1 (Post time 2:25 PT)
#1 Lancaster Bomber 6-1
#11 Good Samaritan 9-2
#8 Intelligence Cross 6-1
#14 Ticonderoga 15-1
Analysis: Lancaster Bomber is one of two in here sent out by the Aiden O’Brien barn that has won this race three timers including last year with Hit It a Bomb ($16.40). Euros have won this race six of the nine editions and 7 of the 9 made their last start across the pond. Our top pick was a good second last out in the Dewhurst Stakes (G1), a race that has produced two winners of this race. The colt has run into the highly regarded Churchill in each of his last three starts. He makes his U.S. debut with lasix and is going to be the higher price of the two O’Brien runners. In early betting overseas he is between 6-1 and 7-1 while stablemate Intelligence Cross has been the early favorite between 4-1 and 5-1. He has three sibs that are stakes winners, top earner Excelebration ($2.6 million).
Good Samaritan is perfect in two starts, winning the Summer (G2) last out at Woodbine going a mile, a race Pluck used as a prep in 2010. The colt broke his maiden at the Spa in his debut two back for the Mott barn that usually does not have them fully cranked. The Hall of Fame trainer toyed around with running this guy in the Juvenile on dirt but sticks to turf.
Intelligence Cross was fourth last out in the Middle Park Stakes (G1) last out after winning the Round Tower Stakes (G3) at the Curragh two back, both outings at six furlongs. The colt should have no trouble handling the added ground here. He is by War Front out of a Unbridled’s Song mare that has dropped four other turf winners including stakes winner Warning Flag ($1.2 million).
WIN: #1 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 1,11 / 1,8,11,14
TRI: 1,11 / 1,8,11,14 / 1,2,8,11,13,14
Michael’s Breeders’ Cup Reports includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race during the two-day Breeders’ Cup from Santa Anita on Nov. 4-5.
The Breeders’ Cup offers 13 championship races over two days, bringing together the best top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the world, this year to compete at Santa Anita.